1Sheila Chepkorir Sanga, 2Stephen Handa and 3Victor Muithya
1,2&3National Defence University
P.O. Box 24381- 00502, Nairobi, Kenya
Abstract: This paper investigated the effect of Kenya’s Tax Amnesty on Foreign Income on economic security between 2016 and 2024. The study was guided by Levi’s (2012) Quasi-Compliance Theory, which explains taxpayer behaviour in terms of trust and perceived fairness. A mixed-methods approach was adopted to provide comprehensive and triangulated evidence. The study employed correlational research design, targeting Kenya Revenue Authority officers, National Treasury officials, tax policy experts, and representatives of tax associations. Qualitative data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 55 purposively selected key informants, while secondary quantitative data for 2016–2024 were obtained from the Kenya Revenue Authority, National Treasury, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank. Data were analysed using SPSS version 22, with multiple regression used to examine the relationship between tax amnesty components and economic security outcomes. The regression results showed no statistically significant association between the three tax amnesty components and real GDP growth (R² = 0.053; F-statistic p = 0.961). Foreign-income amnesty had a negative and insignificant coefficient (β = −0.307, p = 0.625), while the Voluntary Tax Disclosure Programme (VTDP) was weakly positive but insignificant (β = 0.225, p = 0.838), and the interest-and-penalty waiver coefficient was near zero and insignificant (β = −0.038, p = 0.950). Qualitative findings indicated short-term fiscal gains through taxpayer regularisation, principal tax recovery, expanded compliance, and improved transparency. However, physical repatriation of offshore assets remained limited, compliance gains were often temporary, and repeated waivers posed moral-hazard risks. The study concludes that tax amnesty supported short-term fiscal repair but showed no measurable association with broader economic security. Stronger post-amnesty monitoring and conditions linking disclosure to capital repatriation are recommended.
Keywords: Tax Amnesty, Foreign Income, economic security, taxpayer waivers, Small and Medium Enterprises
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Sanga, S.C., Handa, S. and Muithya, V. (2026). Tax Amnesty as a Catalyst for Economic Security: Kenya’s Experience from 2016 to 2024. African Research Journal of Education and Social Sciences, 13(2), 120-135. Available at https://arjess.org/social-sciences-research/tax-amnesty-as-a-catalyst-for-economic-security-kenyas-experience-from-2016-to-2024.pdf